So we’ll pull out of Iraq within two years. What’s going to happen then?
My belief is that we have an inherently unstable “government” over there right now. They undoubtedly are seen as a puppet regime for the America. I believe that once we leave, the Shia/Sunni rift will turn into full blown civil war. The current government is mostly Shia and will turn hard toward their base. Eventually a dictator will come to power (probably Shia) and Iraq will be back where it started, except instead of Saddam (who was Sunni), they will have a Shia. And the US will be responsible for the rise to power for both of them. We’ll have spent a trillion dollars, killed tens of thousands of people and destroyed a country’s infrastructure for no gain at all.
This government will have closer ties to Iran but the existence of oil in both countries will keep Iraq and Iran distrustful of each other - they don’t want to share the money. It’s hard to tell if Iran would invade Iraq during the chaos, or partner with the new Shia government to crush the Sunnis. The Kurds will declare their own independent state which will cause even more chaos since they sit on a large portion of Iraq’s oil.
The next 10 years in Iraq will be ugly.